Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1268 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 1268 · PHL → MCI

departs 12:59 PM ET · arrives 2:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 267 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCI that day

↑ 12pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling267 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1268 · PHL → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?