Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1280 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 1280 · PHL → BNA

departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 4:42 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1280 · PHL → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?