Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1405 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 1405 · CMH → PHL

departs 7:07 PM ET · arrives 8:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at CMH that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.11 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1405 · CMH → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?