Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1495SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 1495 · SBA → PHX
departs 5:59 AM PT · arrives 7:40 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
11%chance · ±1 pts+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.