Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1534 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 1534 · LGA → ORD

departs 2:29 PM ET · arrives 4:05 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 2pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.26 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1534 · LGA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?