Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1561 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 1561 · GRR → DFW

departs 7:01 AM ET · arrives 8:48 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1561 · GRR → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?