Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1564 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 1564 · ORD → LAS

departs 10:55 AM CT · arrives 12:41 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±9 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.36 in

LAS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1564 · ORD → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?