Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1631 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 1631 · SAT → DFW

departs 9:08 AM CT · arrives 10:29 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 9am departures from SAT are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1631 · SAT → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?