Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1834 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 1834 · PHL → RSW

departs 1:28 PM ET · arrives 4:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RSW

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1834 · PHL → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?