Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1849 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 1849 · SFO → DFW

departs 11:24 AM PT · arrives 5:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ 11am departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 45% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1849 · SFO → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?