Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2221 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 2221 · LGA → RDU

departs 9:41 AM ET · arrives 11:23 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 49% of the time recently

↑ 9am departures from LGA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2221 · LGA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?