Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2400 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 2400 · AVL → DFW

departs 6:59 AM ET · arrives 8:50 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at AVL that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

AVL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2400 · AVL → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?