Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 249 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 249 · ORD → MEX

departs 8:40 AM CT · arrives 11:51 AM CST

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEX?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.43 in

MEX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 249 · ORD → MEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEX?