Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2600 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 2600 · BOS → ORD

departs 10:23 AM ET · arrives 12:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at BOS that day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.03 in

ORD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2600 · BOS → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?