Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2774 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 2774 · AUS → PHL

departs 7:30 AM CT · arrives 12:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.03 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2774 · AUS → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?