Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2805 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 2805 · DFW → BWI

departs 3:16 PM CT · arrives 7:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2805 · DFW → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?