Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2823 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 2823 · DFW → OMA

departs 9:21 AM CT · arrives 11:20 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OMA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2823 · DFW → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?