Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3039 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 3039 · ORD → IAH

departs 1:44 PM CT · arrives 4:29 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.43 in

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3039 · ORD → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?