Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3115 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 3115 · ORD → SFO

departs 8:13 AM CT · arrives 10:43 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.26 in

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3115 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?