Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3128 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 3128 · ORD → LGA

departs 10:12 AM CT · arrives 1:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.43 in

LGA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3128 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?