Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3161 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 3161 · ORD → LGA

departs 8:13 AM CT · arrives 11:40 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.25 in

LGA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3161 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?