Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3317 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 3317 · LAX → DFW

departs 10:43 AM PT · arrives 3:49 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from LAX are often late

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3317 · LAX → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?