Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 410 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 410 · DFW → BOS

departs 4:38 PM CT · arrives 9:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at BOS that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 410 · DFW → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?