Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 557 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 557 · PHL → ATL

departs 4:10 PM ET · arrives 6:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±4 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 557 · PHL → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?