Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 741 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 741 · MAD → PHL

departs 3:25 PM CEST · arrives 5:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD

Weather at each end

MAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 741 · MAD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?