Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 9789 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 9789 · PHL → AMA

departs 3:08 PM ET · arrives 5:33 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AMA?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at AMA that day

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AMA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.50 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 9789 · PHL → AMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to AMA?