Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR FRANCE · FLIGHT AF 12 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AF 12 · CDG → JFK

departs 8:28 PM CEST · arrives 10:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CDG

Weather at each end

CDG (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AF 12 · CDG → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?