Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR FRANCE · FLIGHT AF 56 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AF 56 · CDG → LAS

departs 1:38 PM CEST · arrives 3:41 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

CDG (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AF 56 · CDG → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?