Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1333 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AS 1333 · SEA → ANC

departs 11:49 AM PT · arrives 2:35 PM AKT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1333 · SEA → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?