Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 16 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AS 16 · SEA → JFK

departs 6:57 AM PT · arrives 2:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SEA are usually not late

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 16 · SEA → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?