Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 215 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AS 215 · BOS → SEA

departs 9:02 AM ET · arrives 12:14 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 215 · BOS → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?