Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 300 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AS 300 · PDX → MCO

departs 7:00 AM PT · arrives 3:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 300 · PDX → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?