Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 32 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AS 32 · JFK → SFO

departs 4:44 PM ET · arrives 7:39 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±4 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 32 · JFK → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?