Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 341 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AS 341 · SEA → DFW

departs 10:59 AM PT · arrives 5:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at DFW that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 341 · SEA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?