Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 412 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AS 412 · SEA → PIT

departs 12:49 PM PT · arrives 8:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at PIT that day

↓ PIT usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

PIT (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 412 · SEA → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?