Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 418 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AS 418 · MCI → SEA

departs 3:10 PM CT · arrives 4:53 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCI that day

↑ 3pm departures from MCI are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip1.41 in

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 418 · MCI → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?