Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 462 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AS 462 · CMH → SEA

departs 8:32 AM ET · arrives 10:23 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 8am departures from CMH are usually not late

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.19 in

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 462 · CMH → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?