Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 500 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AS 500 · SEA → IND

departs 10:41 AM PT · arrives 5:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IND?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IND that day

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ IND usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

IND (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.43 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 500 · SEA → IND

Odds over time

How late will it get to IND?