Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 501SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 501 · SFO → SAN
departs 7:02 AM PT · arrives 8:40 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
9%chance · ±1 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.