Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 724 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AS 724 · SEA → GEG

departs 10:23 AM PT · arrives 11:32 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GEG?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GEG

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

GEG (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 724 · SEA → GEG

Odds over time

How late will it get to GEG?