Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 733 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AS 733 · SEA → SLC

departs 10:52 AM PT · arrives 1:53 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SLC?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SLC (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 733 · SEA → SLC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SLC?