Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 734 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AS 734 · SLC → SEA

departs 2:56 PM MT · arrives 4:00 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SLC (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 734 · SLC → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?