Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 756 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AS 756 · LAS → PDX

departs 2:08 PM PT · arrives 4:29 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 2pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 756 · LAS → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?