Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 810 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AS 810 · HNL → LAX

departs 8:00 AM HT · arrives 4:20 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 810 · HNL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?