tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AVIANCA · FLIGHT AV 153 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

AV 153 · JFK → MDE

departs 4:39 AM ET · arrives 9:34 AM -05
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Arrive at MDE more than 15 minutes late?
9% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 6.2d Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to MDE?

  1. On time or early
    90%
  2. 15–30 min late
    5%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    2%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    1%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    <1%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.