Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1238
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
B6 1238 · AUS → BOS
departs 2:14 PM CT · arrives 7:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Tue 10/13 54%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 40%
Fri 10/16 47%
Sat 10/17 36%
Sun 10/18 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.01 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.