Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 225
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
B6 225 · JFK → TPA
departs 10:39 AM ET · arrives 1:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Tue 10/13 12%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 30%
Sat 10/17 21%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
10am departures from JFK are often late
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.