Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 280
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
B6 280 · MBJ → JFK
departs 11:30 AM EST · arrives 4:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 32%
Fri 10/16 42%
Sat 10/17 40%
Sun 10/18 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MBJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MBJ that day
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
MBJ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.