Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 2821
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
B6 2821 · MCO → LAS
departs 9:42 AM ET · arrives 11:53 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 23%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
9am departures from MCO are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.