Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 415
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow
B6 415 · JFK → SFO
departs 3:45 PM ET · arrives 7:11 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 36%
Fri 10/16 42%
Sat 10/17 40%
Sun 10/18 38%
Mon 10/19 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±7 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.